02464: Another Round of Projections

Fresh Versus Late Covid-19 Cases as of 10 June

Metro Manila Community Quarantine - Day 88

The current Modified General Community Quarantine is scheduled to end on Monday, 15 June 2020. And has been the pattern in previous instances when Metro Manila is on the brink of hitting the end of a declared quarantine period, the government is letting the media know that they're thinking about what to do next. Why we make these decisions mere days before the end of each quarantine period is beyond me, but nearly 3 months into these lockdowns, you just have to accept the peculiarities of the government. 

So I expect the national government to make a decision tomorrow night and possibly announce it either Thursday night or play another recording of the Thursday night meeting come morning. Why it takes so much effort to get around to making an announcement every time is anyone's guess at this point, but let's see.

Assuming the decision whether or not to extend quarantine will be determined by the profession of infections, it's a lot harder to read the data now, especially given how the DOH has shifted things to this whole fresh cases versus late cases reporting format. I put together a quick stacked column chart and while there's no clear trend for our new number of cases, the number of fresh cases seems to be in a consistent range that is slightly going up. Our total numbers seem to average 500 new cases per day, which is not a comforting number. 

Some UP professors had run the numbers back in May on the potential impact of lifting the Enhanced Community Quarantine "early" and projected that we'd hit 24,000 cases by 15 June. It's the 10th today and we're now at 23,732 cases, so we're right on track to hit this...tomorrow. Good stuff. It's fun to hit milestones in our infection numbers on the same day the national government makes announcements about the fate of everyone in lockdown.

Never a dull moment.